Thanksgiving dinner essentials like turkey, cranberries and potatoes are more expensive than ever, leaving many Americans wondering if it would be cheaper to dine out.
A new report from Wells Fargo is out to help Americans understand which option may be right for them and how to save. Some key factors to consider include the size of the party, the importance of having a turkey at the table and whether you’re open to dining out in general, said Brad Rubin, director of food and Wells Fargo agribusiness for specialty crops.
“For this little family [of four] releasing this year, what can be seen as a kind of luxury for most, could actually have a lot of value there. Obviously, if you have a much larger family, economies of scale are in play, so making the meal was probably going to be more economical in that particular case,” he told Yahoo Finance.
In November 2021, the cost of eating out increased at a slower rate, up 5.79%, compared to the price of groceries, up 9.81%. This year, the overall cost of a Thanksgiving basket costs 14.9% more than in November 2021, according to data extracted by Wells Fargo from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s compared to the cost of dining in some kind of restaurant for a Thanksgiving meal, up 5.8% in August from November 2021.
Starting with the “star” of Thanksgiving – the turkey – customers can expect it to cost 23% more than last year, according to a recent report from the USDA Economic Research Service. Per pound, customers can probably expect to spend $1.64 per pound for a frozen whole hen that ranges from 8 to 16 pounds.
Frozen turkeys tend to be less expensive than fresh turkeys. Rubin says “buying frozen turkeys now might be a little more economical option,” but if you’re open to the idea, he encourages families to “maybe look at alternative protein, if you still want to eat at home. “.
Some of the most economical options — chicken and pork. “If you’re looking for protein alternatives, chicken and pork products might be a bit cheaper than some of the other proteins available,” he pointed out.
The price of chicken rose 17.2% year over year, while that of pork rose 6.7%, according to the September consumer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Overall items driving up the cost of Americans’ Thanksgiving dinners include eggs (+32.5%), butter (+25.8%) and flour (+17.1%). Fruits and vegetables saw a smaller price increase, up just 7.3%, but consumers can expect higher prices for two items some call Thanksgiving essentials: cranberries and potatoes. sweet.
Rubins says canned or frozen can be the way to go to spend less. “It will always be a cheaper option to buy frozen vegetables or canned goods, therefore it will be more economical to go that route rather than buying new fresh vegetable products, [with] fresh cranberries for example.”
During this time, traditional mashed potatoes may need to be replaced with sweet mashed potatoes. This year’s steady potato crop is expected to be lower than last year, with the report noting “with rising input costs, falling yields and affected production, you can bet consumers will start to see an increase in the price of potatoes”.
“It might make sense to incorporate a little more sweet potatoes than other veggies into this Thanksgiving meal, there’s a harvest surplus, supplies are high, and so I think people are going to get better deals in supermarkets because of it,” Rubin suggested.
Is this the year for dinner? Why restaurants may be more valuable this year
Rising commodity prices are having a direct impact on grocery prices, causing sticker shock among many Americans. For that reason, says Rubin, “It potentially makes economic sense for this little family. [of four] to move forward and have that restaurant experience.”
“If you’re a small family…consider a restaurant to avoid that prep and cleanup, which can be a bit of a hassle…It’s really going to be seen as a stronger value this year, potentially eating out instead of at home. me.”
Although restaurants have increased menu prices, they are less affected because ingredients represent only a small percentage of restaurant overheads. “They have economies of scale, they buy in bulk, they can spread their costs across the labor pool to produce more food at lower cost.”
Rubin predicts that as consumer confidence increases, prices will adjust. “And that’s something to be grateful for.”
Brooke DiPalma is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter at @BrookeDiPalma or email him at bdipalma@yahoofinance.com.
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