“Oh my God, why am I not at the market?  This Forecaster Says Investors Will Be Shocked By What Happens Next

“Oh my God, why am I not at the market? This Forecaster Says Investors Will Be Shocked By What Happens Next

Slower, but higher rates and no pivot this side of Christmas. That was the message from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell after the central bank’s fourth straight hike. Bruised investors look set to continue selling stocks on Thursday as yields rise.

Not everyone agrees with Powell. “The Fed is making a huge policy mistake, and they will manage to break something. Rate hikes are good enough. The more wrong,” says the president of macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux & Co., Yves Lamoureux.

The forecaster also provides our call of the daywhich will encourage bulls as he looks to medium to long-term years for stocks, even though Powell has thrown a “short-term wrench in the engine.”

This column last spoke to Lamoureux in March, when he declared the end of a trilogy of rolling bear markets he had accurately predicted from the pandemic lows of 2020. In March, he predicted a new bull market extending into 2025, but sees it now extending into 2026 due to the “damage” that has been done.

And while bull market conditions don’t look great now, “they will because we’re going higher and stocks are up,” he told MarketWatch in a recent interview.

“People are so overwhelmingly negative that it gives me even more confidence than ever before that I’m on the safe side,” Lamoureux told MarketWatch. Also in March, he predicted that the 10-year Treasury yield would hit 4%. The move came earlier than expected, and he sees this cycle ending and lower rates ahead, supporting equities.

To be clear, Lamoureux holds individual names, not indexes, and says May or June marked the bottom for many stocks that failed to hit new lows like the Nasdaq Composite COMP.
or S&P 500 SPX.
He bought the Robinhood HOOD scholarship app
in June, for example, and notes that it has since rebounded around 50% from those lows.

He also owned Netflix NFLX
and Roblox RBLX
at times, noting that these stocks have also rebounded from early summer lows.

“People have made the mistake of looking at the index which is made up of, you know, four or five large caps which are Microsoft, Facebook, and these things have been trapped. And they look at the Nasdaq and they think oh we have made a new low. I’m looking at individual stocks because those are the ones I own,” he said.

He says investors should avoid the “infamous large caps” that everyone wants to own. He prefers names that have leadership in their own segment and have some value, like Netflix, which he bought for around three times the sale price.

The problem facing investors today is that “they don’t have the instinct to sell,” the forecaster said. This is vitally important for the future, because if investors see a bull market through 2025, for example, it could mark a “very important high that won’t be crossed for another 10 years”, he said. -he declares.

“So if you haven’t learned how to sell, the market is probably going to crash for 10 years,” and this type of market is difficult for those who have become accustomed to buying and holding, he said. .

As for the higher ride, Lamoureux says it’s going to be “straight, faster than we’ve ever seen” in part because there’s a ton of cash on the sidelines. “I think it will make people’s heads spin and say, ‘Oh my God, why am I not in the market?’

As for his stock picks, Lamoureux remains a fan of Robinhood and a previous mention Bakkt Holdings BKKT,
which is “slowly building massive cryptographic infrastructure for companies like Visa, Matercard, Global Payments, Fiserv, etc.”

Lamoureux has two final points to make. The first is that it is now turning bearish on the US Dollar after being bullish since 2014. This dollar weakness, which will be good for stocks and cryptos, is due to the US producing its own oil and not do not require oil outlets. dollars to pay for this product.

Lamoureux & Co.

And a weaker dollar may push gold up to 2028 and to a level of $4,000, also because of geopolitical tensions, he said. “I think we’ll see some choppy waters around 2026, 2027 and I think gold may still go higher because people will really see it as a safe haven,” he said.

Lily: What’s next for markets after the Fed’s fourth consecutive interest rate hike

The steps


Losses for stock futures YM00


deepen, with the two-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD02Y
at its highest since 2007, with the dollar DXY.
CL Oil Price

and gold GC00
are under pressure. Hang Sang HK: Hong Kong HSI
fell 3%, leading to losses across Asia.

Post Fed, Norway’s central bank raised rates 25 basis points less than expected, while the Bank of England just raised rates by 75 basis points to 3%. The pound I snot ge

The buzz

Better than expected QSR results from Burger King Restaurant Brands
raises shares, while Moderna MRNA
is down 12% after earnings are well below forecasts and Peloton PTON
is down nearly 20% on a low holiday forecast.

After the close we will hear Coinbase COIN,
Starbucks SBUX,
and DoorDash DASH
among many others.

Among those who reported on Wednesday evening, Qualcomm QCOM
is down more than 7% in premarket after a poor outlook that included a glut of chips. Roku ROKU
is down 20% after the streaming service’s upbeat results, but a disappointing holiday outlook and ad budget issues. eBay
and Etsy ETSY
are up after the respective results, with WWE WWE
and Zillow Z.

Morgan Stanley MS
is reportedly bracing for global layoffs as bargaining slows. And Elon Musk is expected to lay off half of Twitter’s staff, possibly by Friday.

A day ahead of payrolls data, weekly jobless claims are due at 8:30 a.m., alongside the trade deficit, third-quarter productivity and unit labor costs. The Institute for Supply Management’s services index and factory orders are due at 10 a.m.

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