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NHL Betting Market Report for Tuesday, November 8e
I’m traveling overseas this week, so I’m going to have to post some of my stuff overnight.
Won : 23 Losses: 22 Units earned: + 0.96 units ROI: 2.2%
I track all my bets on Betstamp: a third-party bet tracking app. Bets are revealed after matches have started. I also keep my own personal records and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part they should be closely aligned.
Tuesday bets: Los Angeles Kings -105
All play lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I’ll sometimes use consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it’s a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will come with the recommended bet size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Minnesota Wild (-115) vs. Los Angeles Kings (-105)
Here are the teams the Wild have beaten this season: Vancouver, Montreal (twice), Ottawa and Chicago. In other words, the Wild didn’t beat anyone. The Kings, meanwhile, have won over Toronto, Florida and Tampa Bay, to name a few, and they even beat the Wild a few weeks ago. The Kings should be the favorites in this game. The Wild had four days off, but the Kings last played on Saturday, so it’s not an off-duty situation and it doesn’t hold true, according to my model. Marcus Foligno, Jordan Greenway and Ryan Hartman are all expected to return in November, but it doesn’t look like we should expect to see any of those players suit up for this game. It’s possible that Greenway will return to the lineup, as it will at some point on this road trip, but nothing has been confirmed. Either way, give me the Kings on the moneyline at a pick ’em price all day.
Los Angeles is a better team, top to bottom, and if they can play most of the game at even strength, the ice should be tiled towards them. Neither team is getting good goalkeepers right now, but things are looking particularly bad for the team on the road. It’s unclear who will start for the Wild on Tuesday, as they face Anaheim on Wednesday, but Filip Gustavsson is the other option and, so far, he hasn’t made a difference at the NHL level. Statistically, Fleury and Gustavsson may be the league’s worst pairing, but Jonathan Quick and Cal Petersen also put up abysmal numbers to start the season. However, unlike Fleury and Gustavsson, Quick and Petersen were good last season, and that’s still worth something. Or maybe it’s not. I do not know. Goalkeepers are voodoo.
My NHL betting pattern is pricing this game closer to -130 in favor of the Kings, so I’m risking just over two units to win two units at -105. The Kings would still be on the safe side down to -120, but the bet would be much smaller. So if you call, adjust your bet accordingly based on the odds you get.
Bet: Los Angeles Kings -105 Stake: 2.1 units to earn 2 units
Arizona Coyotes (+170) vs. Buffalo Sabers (-190)
Head coach Don Granato said there was a chance star defender Rasmus Dahlin would play on Tuesday. If so, the Sabers will be a much bigger favorite, and I’d consider betting them on the puck line. Buffalo’s offensive play has been on point, but Dahlin is a big reason why. The 22-year-old currently leads the Sabers in points with 15 in 11 games, and if he’s in the lineup, the Sabers’ price should be closer to -240. The Coyotes aren’t scoring enough goals (two or less in six of 11 games) and rank dead last in all offensive categories. Buffalo should be able to dominate this game, which I didn’t expect to hear me say in the 2022-23 season, but here we are.
Nashville Predators (-110) at Seattle Kraken (-110)
Kraken striker Jared McCann has missed the last two games and his status hasn’t changed even though he has trained. Looks like he’s gone from doubtful to doubtful, which means the team probably didn’t rule out the possibility of him playing. There is some value on the Kraken at -110 if it unexpectedly adjusts, but otherwise the market has an appropriate price for this game. Seattle is a good hockey team, but their goalie is still very uncertain, to say the least. Money came to Nashville overnight, but there was a buyout in Seattle and now the line is where it should be at around -115.
Edmonton Oilers (+130) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-150)
Stuart Skinner started in goal for the Oilers in Washington on Monday against a depleted Capitals team and lost 5-4. Skinner has been good this season, but the Oilers haven’t helped him much. Jack Campbell, meanwhile, has been awful and will almost certainly start in Tampa Bay on Tuesday. Campbell has allowed about six goals above expectations in eight games this season and has allowed at least four goals in more than half of his starts. The Oilers are going to have to outplay their goalie issues if they want to win games, and while they can do that, it’s a little tougher against an opponent like Tampa Bay with a goaltender like Andrei Vasilevskiy, on the second half of a back-to-back, nonetheless. My model puts the Oilers at +130.
St. Louis Blues (-125) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (+105)
Blues backup goaltender Thomas Greiss is likely to start in Philadelphia after Jordan Binnington’s loss to the Boston Bruins on Monday. The Blues are struggling, having lost seven in a row. They won their first three games of the season, but the situation has since deteriorated. My NHL betting model rates the game as a draw, which means the Flyers could be a decent bet. The problem with betting on Philadelphia, however, is that you almost always need it to confirm whether Carter Hart will start in goal or not. They’re a bad hockey team, and their star goaltender is the only reason I, or anyone else, would consider betting on them to win games. They’re as bad as Coyotes in most areas. Sure, injuries to some of their top forwards have been a driving force behind their poor underlying numbers, but Hart is the one good thing about this team. Most stores are sitting at +105 or worse, and I don’t want any home team exposure at that price.
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