Welcome to the daily NBA Betting Market Report, your source for analysis of the day’s betting lines in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day, follow me on Twitter and be sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!
All game lines via the VSiN NBA Odds page.
Market Report for Saturday November 12
* Indicates that the team is on the second leg of a consecutive match
**Lines are opening numbers
File: 15-18 | Units: -3.31 | ROI: -10.66%
Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Clippers (-2, 212.5)
Paul George is averaging 30.7 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game over the past six games, and Los Angeles is 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in its six last matches. They’re also allowing just 105.0 points per 100 possessions this run, and they enter this game as the second-best defensive team in the league with 108.4 points per 100 possessions allowed. That defense will have to deal with Kevin Durant, who averaged 27.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 7.3 assists in the Nets’ 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS run. During that covering streak, the Nets quietly played a mark of quality defense, allowing just 95.0 points per 100 possessions. The line is Clippers -1.5 is low enough to warrant a play for me given how well they play defense.
Play: Clippers (-1.5)
Summary of the best bets
Utah Jazz (-3.5, 222) at Washington Wizards
Utah is 6-1 SU/7-0 ATS in its last seven games with a +9.7 net rating. As we expected with this team, their rebound has been great during this run, but it may not be a game that works for them as well. Washington is the second-best defensive rebounding team in the league (74.9%), and they’ve allowed the second-fewest plays per 100 missed shot attempts in the league (15.7). Bradley Beal is still out and Taj Gibson is doubtful to play, but the market has shifted to the home team by half a point. The consequential move came on the underside, as that total is down 1.5 points to consensus 221.
*Boston Celtics (-9, 223.5) at *Detroit Pistons
Boston’s win over Denver last night was its fifth in a row, and the team is 3-1 ATS in its last four games. The Celtics’ defense is still showing its inconsistencies – they allowed 1,225 points per possession last night – but this offense is still among the best in the league and shows no signs of slowing down. Boston has topped 1.3 points per possession in three of its last four games, one of them being the win over Detroit on Wednesday. The Pistons defense has allowed 119.5 points per 100 possessions this season, and they are unlikely to have the ability to contain the Celtics offense. That’s probably why the betting market is moving in Boston’s direction as 9.5 is the consensus number this morning and the total is 227. Watch for both teams’ injury report today as Cade Cunningham and Malcolm Brogdon are questionable at best.
*Toronto Raptors (-2.5, 228.5) at Indiana Pacers
Toronto looked like a team that was missing its two best forwards on Friday night. The Raptors managed just 1,061 points per possession on offense, and their defense was pounded on the glass by the Thunder grabbing 47.2% of their shot attempts missed in non-playoff time. It would make sense for the market to adjust its odds on a beaten Toronto team, but that’s quite the swing. The Raptors closed -5 on the road against the Thunder yesterday, but are now 1.5 point underdogs for a team that is the same odds as the Thunder? Indiana has covered six in a row, but that seems like an overreaction to Toronto’s performance last night.
Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers (-3.5, 220.5)
The angle to follow here is the total. When these two teams met on Thursday night, there were 106 possessions in the game, but both teams were averaging less than a point per possession and the game went well under. Today we saw that number open at 220, two points lower than Thursday’s closing figure, and the betting market reacted accordingly by betting it down to the current consensus of 223.5. There hasn’t been any real movement on the side yet, but Philadelphia comes in on a small 1-3 SU and ATS drop.
Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat (-10, 215)
Charlotte snapped an 0-6 ATS slide with overtime coverage against Miami, but the offense didn’t look much better in the process. The Hornets averaged just 1,057 points per possession in the game, and tonight they are still without LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward. To make matters worse, Dennis Smith Jr. injured his ankle in that game and it’s questionable to play tonight. Miami also has its own injuries to deal with. Dewayne Dedmon and Tyler Herro are also questionable, leaving this game with a lot of noise and big numbers. Miami was heavily overvalued by the betting market to start the season and Thursday’s failed coverage dropped them to 2-9-1 ATS on the season.
Houston Rockets vs. New Orleans Pelicans (-10, 230.5)
The luster has certainly worn off for New Orleans, but the betting market has yet to catch up. The Pelicans’ loss on Thursday reduced them to 1-5 ATS in the month of November and 5-7 ATS this season. Over the six games this month, New Orleans has averaged 4.75 points and here they are at 10.5 today after betting the opener. Houston hasn’t been a covering machine either, and its inability to rebound defensively (69.7%, 24th) doesn’t lend itself to a competitive game tonight against a team that can attack the offensive glass like the Pelicans. .
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