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All game lines via the VSiN NBA Odds page.
Market report for Monday, November 14
* Indicates that the team is on the second leg of a consecutive match
**Lines are opening numbers
File: 15-19 | Units: -4.31 | ROI: -13.45%
Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic (-1, 221)
LaMelo Ball made his season debut on Saturday, and it’s no coincidence that Charlotte posted its best individual offensive rating in nine games (111.5). Ball is not on the injury report tonight, but he only played 28 minutes on Saturday, so there may be a small minute restriction on him to start. The Hornets will be without Gordon Hayward tonight, and Dennis Smith Jr. is unlikely to play as well. Meanwhile, Paolo Banchero hasn’t played since November 7 with an ankle injury and is questionable once again tonight, but the rookie star trained on Sunday which would likely see him play this evening. If Banchero plays tonight, the Magic side is going to close higher than the number right now, and rightfully so. Banchero’s presence would add to Orlando’s size advantage, and his ability to score against lesser defenses should show up tonight against the 20th-ranked defense that allows 112.9 points per 100 possessions. The Magic have also become an adequate defensive team themselves and enter this game 15th in defensive efficiency at 112.0 points per 100 possessions allowed. They have a defender they can get sick of on Ball at times in Chuma Okeke, and they’re almost a top ten transition defender, an area of their defensive game that becomes much more important with Ball back. I will play it at the PK as I expect it to close higher once Banchero is officially announced as active.
Play: Magic (PK)
Summary of the best bets
Toronto Raptors (-5, 220) at Detroit Pistons
Injuries are commonplace in this game, making it hard to know what that number should be. Toronto, as we know, won’t have Pascal Siakam or Precious Achiuwa on the floor tonight due to various injuries, and now Fred VanVleet has been ruled out with a non-COVID illness. That means the Raptors will take the floor tonight without their top two scorers and rebounders, and yet the market has them at -5 consensus. Now would apparently be the time to jump on the Pistons, but Cade Cunningham remains sidelined with that shin issue and Cory Joseph is questionable. Neither team has been in good form either. Toronto is 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS in its last four with a -9.6 net rating, and Detroit is 1-5 SU/1-4-1 ATS in its last six with a net score of -12.7. Neither side nor total has budged from the opener, and I guess it’s one of the worst managed games on the board tonight.
Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat (-1.5, 217)
Phoenix wraps up a four-game road trip to Miami tonight, but with two nights off between games, the team should be well rested heading into tonight. Chris Paul is questionable to play due to heel pain which has kept him out for the past two games and Landry Shamet is also out which means this team is a bit short in the backcourt if Paul can’t. go. However, the Heat are dealing with their own injury issues. Tyler Herro, who hasn’t played in 10 days, is questionable to play tonight, as is Dewayne Dedmon. Even though Herro speaks tonight, Miami has proven to be overvalued by the market and enters this contest with a 3-9-1 ATS record. Still, the Heat have allowed just 111.3 ppg-100 ppg-100 possessions in non-garbage time this season, and they could bog down a struggling Suns offense against Orlando on Friday.
*Oklahoma City Thunder v Boston Celtics (-11, 227.5)
Oklahoma City plays the second leg of a straight game today, but they have a little more rest time than usual because their warning against New York on Sunday was at 12:00 p.m. ET. Still, it was a sporting affair with 280 total points and 109 possessions, and a similarly paced game will likely take place tonight in Boston. The Celtics are 11th in transition frequency on live rebounds, and aren’t shy about running when given the chance, and the Thunder are living on transition opportunities due to a less than half-court offense. average which only averages 95.3 points per 100 games. This is probably why, once again, this total was bet up three points to 230 consensus.
Los Angeles Clippers (-5.5, 221) at Houston Rockets
It’s the front-end of a back-to-back route for Los Angeles, so John Wall is taking a night’s rest tonight. On the other side, Houston listed Jalen Green as questionable due to shoulder pain. Green finally started to get comfortable in November and is averaging 26.2 points on 54.1% shooting from the ground and 41.3% from deep, so his absence would be a blow to the Rockets who have struggled to score against the Clippers this season (97.5 offensive rating in two games). The previous two games in this series totaled 188 and 210 runs scored, but the two-game totals closed at consensus 224.5 and 223.5. Obviously, we saw an adjustment with the opening of 221 and the subsequent move up to 219.5 in some stores. If Green is officially ruled out, expect that number to drop even further.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-4, 225)
It turns out Milwaukee is lethal after all, as the team enters this game 1-2 SU and ATS in its last three games. It’s already the third meeting between these two clubs this season, and we already have two very different results on the books. In Game 1, Giannis Antetokounmpo went wild for 34 points and 17 rebounds on 11-of-19 shooting from the floor, and Trae Young had 42 points on 15-of-32 shooting in a high-scoring affair that topped the total . . In Game 2, the Bucks’ offensive shots and rebounds were gone, and they failed to score 100 points in a loss. If I had to expect one of these two results tonight, it would be the first. Milwaukee is eighth in offensive rebounding rate (29.9%) and Atlanta is 18th in defensive rebounding (72.4%). The Bucks generate the 12th most points per 100 shots missed (22.4) and the sixth most games missed per 100 misses (20.8), and these are two categories in which the Hawks rank 18th respectively. and 24th in defence.
San Antonio Spurs vs. *Golden State Warriors (-8.5, 232)
We’re thirteen games into the season and Golden State’s problems aren’t going away. The Warriors defense — which now ranks 24th in garbage-free time efficiency at 114.5 points per 100 possessions allowed — allowed 1,184 points per possession last night and 1,106 points per play in half court. It’s been an absolute nightmare regardless of the composition on the pitch, and the team relies on Stephen Curry to generate most of their offense. Add to that the fact that it’s a back-to-back game tonight, which probably means no minimal Klay Thompson, and this game is tough to hit this morning. The market brought that number down to 7.5, which is understandable given the Warriors’ struggles and Spurs’ sudden 3-0 ATS run in their last three games.
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